Friday, March 30, 2012
Current Event #6
There is reason to believe that Iran may be looking for a way out of its current situation. Despite tough talk on both sides recently, several developments make it seem like this conflict is much closer to a resolution than political leaders would have us believe. Western diplomats have recently proposed to resume suspended negotiations with Iran, and Iran has backed down from it's refusal to let UN inspectors into it's nuclear sites. It appears that economic sanctions on Iran are also beginning to take effect, as evidenced by Iran recently importing large amounts of grain, indicating that they may be anticipating food shortages. More sanctions are coming soon: international electronic transfers of money to or from Iranian banks will soon be blocked, and Asian nations that import Iranian oil are finding other providers, and the EU will stop importing Iranian oil entirely beginning in July. What Iran may be looking for is a way to back down while still saving face. Iran has pointed to elections recently held as a sign that their government is legitimate and people approve of its recent actions, although these elections are largely rigged, and carry very little meaning.
Current Event #5
Britain is trying to pass immigration reform. Prime Minister David Cameron says the goal is to reduce the number of immigrants coming into Britain from 250k to under 100k. Britain plans to do this by increasing the requirements for foreign workers and students to get visas to live in the country, and by imposing a 6-ear limit on those granted visas, with exceptions being made for those in difficult to fill positions, doing high level research, having PhDs, etc. Opponents point to the guest worker program in West Germany during the 1970s and 1980s, which ultimately did little more than increase tensions between ethnic groups. Opponents also point to the fact that it will be difficult to get immigrants who have established themselves as a part of British society, married, had children, etc. to leave after 6 years. These proposed changes are scheduled to take place in 2016, which is the year after the next election in 2015.
Current Event #4
Mexican President Felipe Calderon has been criticized for campaigning for his National Action Party’s (PAN) candidate to be his successor, which is forbidden prior to March 30 of this year under Mexican law. Calderon is also being criticized for his pursuit of three Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) governors for corruption charges. Calderon is viewed as being uneven handed in his pursuit of corruption, targeting PRI officials far more often than members of his own party. Some speculate that the targeting of the PRI officials at this time on charges of accepting bribes from drug lords is to try to paint the PRI as being inseparable from the drug cartels. People fear that election watchdog agencies within the government are being compromised as well. An official who refused to overturn the results of an election narrowly lost by President Calderon’s sister was recently removed from his position in one such agency.
http://www.economist.com/node/21549994
http://www.economist.com/node/21549994
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Current Event #3
Labor costs in China are rising. Workers are demanding higher pay, and are getting it. One would think that manufacturers would be scrambling to find poorer countries with cheaper labor available, but this is not the case. Although in the long term, China will have to find alternatives to cheap labor to keep manufacturers from leaving, in the short term, China has many other factors that are keeping manufacturers in place. Despite the higher labor costs, China has very advanced supply chains, and can add thousands of workers to a production line for a particular product should demand warrant within a matter of hours. In the long term, to combat the economic ramifications of rising labor costs, China will need more innovation. Currently, most of the profits for goods made in China go overseas to companies such as California based Apple. The Chinese government is spending huge amounts of money on research to try to spark the kind of innovation that is found in many western countries that will be able to take the place of manufacturing in the economy when manufacturers do eventually start moving. These efforts have proved mostly futile so far. To achieve greater innovation, China’s government must give greater freedom to innovators rather than try to pick hand pick what the next big innovation will be.
Current Event #2
The British parliament is trying to bring about reforms that would make the House of Lords an elected body. Nick Clegg, the leader of the Liberal Democrats is pushing hard for these reforms, and Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron is willing to cooperate. The plan would reduce the number of Lords to 300 from over 800, and at least 240 of these would be elected, with the remainder still being appointed or inheriting their seats. But there are many obstacles standing in the way. Many within the conservative party to not want to see the changes made, fearing that this would result in the kind of legislative gridlock that is found in the United States. Lords obviously aren’t in favor for the most part, because it would cost many of them their jobs. The British public is largely indifferent to the reforms.
Current Event #1
This article from the economist is written sarcastically from the perspective of Ayatollah Khomeni. It’s an analysis of what Iran should be making of what the United States and Israel have been saying about the prospects of war. The article points out that Obama says he will prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and that military options are on the table, but he would clearly prefer to proceed with diplomacy and economic sanctions. Israel on the other hand, is talking about potentially going to war with Iran on its own, although that does not seem like it could possibly end well for Israel without the US backing it up. So the question is whether or not Israel is brash enough to go to war on its own, and if that happened, whether or not the US would come to their aid. Only time will tell. For the time being, Iran’s nuclear program seems safe from bombing.
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